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A Structural Model of Electoral Accountability
discipline selection political agency elections structural estimation maximum likelihood
2015/9/18
This paper proposes a structural approach to measuring the e§ects of electoral accountability. We estimate a political agency model with imperfect information in orderto identify and quantify discipli...
Democracy:Order out of Chaos
majority cellular automata phase transitions power-law elections
2015/7/30
We construct a majority cellular automata based model to explain the power-law signatures in Indonesian general election results. The understanding of second-order phase transitions between two differ...
We provide a selective survey of empirical evidence on the e ects as well as the drivers of
persuasive communication. We consider persuasion directed at consumers, voters, donors,
and investors. We ...
The Effect of Newspaper Entry and Exit on Electoral Politics
Electoral Politics Newspaper Entry
2015/7/17
We use new data on entries and exits of US daily newspapers from
1869 to 2004 to estimate effects on political participation, party vote
shares, and electoral competitiveness.
The Strength of Issues: Using Multiple Measures to Gauge Preference Stability, Ideological Constraint, and Issue Voting
Strength of Issues Gauge Preference Stability
2015/6/8
Avenerable supposition of American survey research is that the vast majority of voters have
incoherent and unstable preferences about political issues, which in turn have little impact on vote
choic...
Does Religion Distract the Poor? Income and Issue Voting Around the World
religion issue voting electoral choice
2015/6/8
This article asks whether religion undermines the negative relationship
between income and left voting that is assumed in standard political economy
models of democracy. Analysis of cross-country su...
Purple America
Purple America division
2015/6/8
A merica, we are told, is a nation divided. Maps of the electoral votes cast by
the states in recent U.S. presidential elections reveal a striking pattern. The
base of the Democratic Party is ᤙ...
Social Identity,Electoral Institutions and the Number of Candidates
Social Identity Electoral Institutions the Number of Candidates
2015/6/5
The empirical literature in comparative politics holds that social cleavages affect the number of candidates or parties when electoral institutions are ‘permissive’, but it lacks a theoretical account...
SOCIAL IDENTITY, POLITICAL SPEECH, AND ELECTORAL COMPETITION
campaign rhetoric elections ethnic politics valence competition
2015/6/5
Much research in political science suggests that social identity can be an important factor in motivating behavior. If voters care about social identity, when will politicians find it in their interes...
lectoral Surprise and the Midterm Loss in US Congressional Elections
lectoral Surprise the Midterm Loss US Congressional Elections
2015/6/5
Alberto Alesina and Howard Rosenthal argue that surprise about the outcomes of US presidential elections accounts for two important features of the American political economy: the regular loss of vote...
All that glitters:betting markets and the 2013 Australian Federal Election
All that glitters betting markets the 2013 Australian Federal Election
2015/6/4
Political betting markets featured prominently in pre-election prognostication, perhaps more so ahead of the 2013 election than for any other recent Australian election. Major newspapers such as The A...
How Does Obama Match-Up?Counterfactuals & the Role of Obama’s Race in 2008
Obama Match-Up Counterfactuals Obama’s Race in 2008
2015/6/4
Would the outcome of the 2008 U.S. presidential election have been different if Barack Obama had not been the Democratic nominee? In this paper we analyze 33 head-to-head matchups, some real and some ...
Primary Politics:Race,Gender,and Age in the 2008 Democratic Primary
Race Gender Age the 2008 Democratic Primary
2015/6/4
Despite Barack Obama’s momentum in the early phase of the Democratic nomination, the process of selecting a nominee took longer than usual. Obama’s momentum, it seems, got stuck, and the 2008 Democrat...
The Greens performed relatively well in the 2010 election, winning 11.8% of 1st preferences and--- for the first time at a general election --- one seat in the House of Representatives (Melbourne). Th...
On measuring democracy and things like that.
