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Skill prediction of local weather forecasts based on the ECMWF ensemble
Skill prediction local weather forecasts ECMWF ensemble
2009/11/12
Ensemble Prediction has become an essential part of numerical weather forecasting. In this paper we investigate the ability of ensemble forecasts to provide an a priori estimate of the expected foreca...
Verification of intense precipitation forecasts from single models and ensemble prediction systems
intense precipitation forecasts single models ensemble prediction systems
2009/11/12
The performance of single models and ensemble prediction systems has been investigated with respect to quantitative precipitation forecasts. Evaluation is based on the potential economic value of + 72...
Increasing the horizontal resolution of ensemble forecasts at CMC
horizontal resolution ensemble forecasts CMC
2009/11/12
Ensemble forecasts are run operationally since February 1998 at the Canadian Meteorological Centre, with outputs up to ten days. The ensemble size was increased from eight to sixteen members in August...
A comparison of predictors of the error of weather forecasts
comparison predictors error of weather forecasts
2009/11/11
Three different potential predictors of forecast error - ensemble spread, mean errors of recent forecasts and the local gradient of the predicted field - were compared. The comparison was performed us...