搜索结果: 1-4 共查到“人口预测学 model”相关记录4条 . 查询时间(0.234 秒)
Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model
Bayesian Bayesian approach England model averaging population forecasting Wales
2014/11/25
Background: Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model.Objecti...
The age pattern of increases in mortality affected by HIV: Bayesian fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to data from the Agincourt HDSS field site in rural northeast South Africa
AIDS/HIV Bayesian inference life expectancy South AfricaAIDS/HIV Bayesian inference life expectancy South Africa
2014/11/25
Background: We investigate the sex-age-specific changes in the mortality of a prospectively monitored rural population in South Africa. We quantify changes in the age pattern of mortality efficiently ...
Estimates of Age-Specific Reductions in HIV Prevalence in Uganda: Bayesian Melding Estimation and Probabilistic Population Forecast with an HIV-enabled Cohort Component Projection Model
Africa AIDS/HIV Bayesian melding Cohort Component Model of Population Projection estimation forecast IMIS incidence prevalence Tanzania Uganda
2014/11/21
Background: Much of our knowledge of the epidemiology and demography of HIV epidemics in Africa is derived from models fit to sparse, non-representative data. These often average over age and other im...
Point and interval forecasts of age-specific life expectancies: A model averaging approach
Booth-Maindonald-Smith method functional data analysis Hyndman-Ullah method Lee-Carter method Lee-Miller method principal components analysis random walk with drift
2014/11/21
Background: Any improvement in the forecast accuracy of life expectancy would be beneficial for policy decision regarding the allocation of current and future resources. In this paper, I revisit some ...
