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Regional probabilistic fertility forecasting by modeling between-country correlations
aggregation correlation forecasting probabilistic projection pseudo-likelihood total fertility rate
2014/11/26
Background: The United Nations (UN) Population Division constructs probabilistic projections for the total fertility rate (TFR) using the Bayesian hierarchical model of Alkema et al. (2011), which pro...
Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions
functional data Lee-Carter method mortality forecasting nonparametric smoothing principal components state space
2008/12/12
We compare the short- to medium-term accuracy of five variants or extensions of the Lee-Carter method for mortality forecasting. These include the original Lee-Carter, the Lee-Miller and Booth-Maindon...
