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Maximizing Utility of Consumption Subject to a Constraint on the Probability of Lifetime Ruin
Maximizing Utility Consumption Subject a Constraint Lifetime Ruin
2012/9/14
In this note, we explicitly solve the problem of maximizing utility of consumption (until the minimum of bankruptcy and the time of death) with a constraint on the probability of lifetime ruin, which ...
A note on asymptotic exponential arbitrage with exponentially decaying failure probability
Asymptotic exponential arbitrage large deviations continuous semimartingale model.
2012/9/14
The goal of this paper is to prove a result conjectured in F¨ollmer and Schachermayer [FS07], even in slightly more general form. Suppose that Sis a continuous semimartingale and satisfies a large dev...
Bayesian logistic betting strategy against probability forecasting
exponential family game-theoretic probability Japan Meteorological Agency probability of precipitation strong law of large numbers
2012/4/28
We propose a betting strategy based on Bayesian logistic regression modeling for the probability forecasting game in the framework of game-theoretic probability by Shafer and Vovk (2001). We prove som...
Market Implied Probability Distributions and Bayesian Skew Estimation
Market Implied Probability Distributions Bayesian Skew Estimation
2010/11/2
We review and illustrate how the volatility smile translates into a probability distribution, the market-implied probability distribution representing believes priced in. The effects of changes in the...