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Regional probabilistic fertility forecasting by modeling between-country correlations
aggregation correlation forecasting probabilistic projection pseudo-likelihood total fertility rate
2014/11/26
Background: The United Nations (UN) Population Division constructs probabilistic projections for the total fertility rate (TFR) using the Bayesian hierarchical model of Alkema et al. (2011), which pro...
The mid-twentieth century Baby Boom and the changing educational gradient in Belgian cohort fertility
baby boom Belgium contraception education fertility socio-economic status
2014/11/26
Background: The historical transition towards low fertility in many Western countries was interrupted during the period around the 1950s and ‘60s, called the Baby Boom. This upturn in fertility was co...
Immigrant fertility in Sweden, 2000-2011: A descriptive note
duration hypothesis fertility among male and female immigrants fertility by duration since immigration TFR-like cumulative fertility UN Human Development Index
2014/11/26
Background: Modern Scandinavian population registers provide excellent data sources that allow a user to quickly gain an impression of the level of fertility and its structure across subpopulations. T...
Occupation and fertility on the frontier: Evidence from the state of Utah
fertility transition historical demography occupation socio-economic status
2014/11/26
Background: Most of what we know about fertility decline in the United States comes from aggregate (often state or county level) data sources. It is difficult to identify variation in fertility change...
Fertility transition and social stratification in the town of Alghero, Sardinia (1866-1935)
Alghero birth control fertility transition Italy Sardinia SES differences
2014/11/26
Background: Despite the large amount of research on European fertility transition, the mechanisms of this demographic process are still poorly understood. This is particularly true in the Italian demo...
Fertility in the context of Mexican migration to the United States: A case for incorporating the pre-migration fertility of immigrants
birth rate immigrant families race/ethnic disparities
2014/11/26
Background: Mexican-American fertility is poorly understood because data limitations prevent researchers from accurately estimating the fertility levels of members of this group and from determining h...
Background: The fields of demography, sociology, and socio-psychology have been increasingly drawing on social network theories, which posit that individual fertility decision-making depends in part o...
How does education change the relationship between fertility and age-dependency under environmental constraints? A long-term simulation exercise
aging dependency human capital low fertility optimal fertility
2014/11/26
Background: When asked what a desirable fertility level for populations might be, most politicians, journalists, and even social scientists would say it is around two children per woman, a level that ...
Social class and net fertility before, during, and after the demographic transition: A micro-level analysis of Sweden 1880-1970
adjustment child-woman ratios fertility transition innovation-diffusion social class spatial heterogeneity
2014/11/26
Background: Although demographers have long been interested in studying the historical fertility transition, there is still a lack of knowledge about disaggregated patterns. Identifying these patterns...
Estimating the contribution of mothers of foreign origin to total fertility: The recent recovery of period fertility in the Belgian region of Flanders
Belgium fertility migrants nationality
2014/11/26
Background: Since the early 21st century, period total fertility has been recovering from (very) low levels in many European countries. This trend is partly attributable to the end of the postponement...
Modelling the constraints on consanguineous marriage when fertility declines
consanguinity fertility transition modelling
2014/11/26
Background: Consanguinity - or marriage between close blood relatives, in particular first cousins - is widely practised and even socially encouraged in many countries. However, in the face of fertili...
Children are costly, but raising them may pay: The economic approach to fertility
children as consumption and investment goods economic theory fertility intra-family bargaining labor force participation opportunity cost public policies rational choices social context time and uncertainty
2014/11/26
Objective: This article provides a non-technical introduction to analyses of fertility which are based on a rational-choice paradigm and which acknowledge that raising children may have a strong impac...
Structural and diffusion effects in the Dutch fertility transition, 1870-1940
blended models demographic transition fertility control innovation diffusion Netherlands social network structural factors
2014/11/26
Background: Ever since the Princeton European Fertility Project, structural and diffusion effects on fertility behavior have been juxtaposed. However, we still hardly know what the relative effects we...
The historical fertility transition at the micro level: Southern Sweden 1815-1939
adjustment fertility transition hazard models innovation-diffusion longitudinal data social class
2014/11/26
Background: We know a great deal about the historical fertility transition at the macro level. The dominating focus on the macro level in previous research on the fertility transition means, however, ...
Patterns of reproductive behavior in transitional Italy: The rediscovery of the Italian fertility survey of 1961
census data education fertility Italy socioeconomic status
2014/11/25
Background: Few studies have investigated the role of the intermediate variables of fertility at the micro-level in Italy, and, in particular, little is known about the influence of socioeconomic fact...