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We consider the problem of estimating parameters of stochastic differential equations with discrete-time observations that are either completely or partially observed. The transition density between t...
Structural reliability methods aim at computing the probability of failure of systems with respect to some prescribed performance functions. In modern engineering such functions usually resort to ru...
Residuals in regression models are often spatially correlated.Prominent examples include studies in environmental epidemiology to understand the chronic health effects of pollutants.
We introduce new quantile estimators with adaptive importance sampling. The adaptive estimators are based on weighted samples that are neither independent nor identically distributed. Using a new l...
Theory of Probability is distinguished by several high-level philosophical attitudes, some stressed by Jeffreys, some implicit. By reviewing these we may recognize the importance in this work in the...
This paper presents a methodology for cross-validation in the context of Bayesian modelling of situations we loosely refer to as iverse problems It is motivated by an example from palaeoclimatology ...
The effect of vigorous physical activity on mortality in the elderly is difficult to estimate using conventional approaches to causal inference that define this effect by comparing the mortality risks...
We characterize and study variable importance (VIMP) and pairwise variable associations in binary regression trees. A key component involves the node mean squared error for a quantity we refer to as a...
Case-deleted analysis is a popular method for evaluating the influence of a subset of cases on inference. The use of Monte Carlo estimation strategies in complicated Bayesian settings leads naturally ...
We present a Bayesian sampling algorithm called adaptive importance sampling or Population Monte Carlo (PMC), whose computational workload is easily parallelizable and thus has the potential to consi...
Any bivariate cdf is bounded by the Fr ´echet-Hoeffding lower and upper bounds. We illustrate the importance of the upper bound in several ways. Any bivariate distribution can be written in term...
Simulated tempering (ST) is an established Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for sampling from a multimodal density (). Typically, ST involves introducing an auxiliary variable k taking value...
We describe a simple Importance Sampling strategy for Monte Carlo simulations based on a least squares optimization procedure. With several numerical examples, we show that such Least Squares Importa...

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